The Baseball Writers’ Association of America elected Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera to the Hall of Fame in 2019.

Rivera was the first unanimous choice, with Halladay and Mussina getting more than 85 percent of the vote.

The writers were sparing with their votes in the four election cycles that followed, choosing only Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Scott Rolen, and Larry Walker.

Will the backlog break this year? There’s a chance.

Based on tracking organized by Ryan Thibodaux, first-year candidate Adrián Beltré will easily gain admission. He was on all but two of the first 176 ballots made public.

Beltré signed a one-year contract to play for the Red Sox in 2010 and had an All-Star season before going on to Texas and further establishing himself as one of the best players in the game.

Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, and Billy Wagner were all at or above 80 percent in the tracking, seemingly a good sign. But percentages historically have dropped once all ballots have been counted. That trio will be sweating it out before the announcement is made Jan. 23.

If elected, Mauer would be the first catcher sent to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA since Pudge Rodriguez in 2017.

In his final year on the ballot, Gary Sheffield is showing increasing support. He was at 11.1 percent in 2018 before climbing to 55 percent last year.

The exit polling has Sheffield just below 75 percent. That doesn’t bode well for admission but could help him land on the Contemporary Era Committee ballot in a few years.

How the six writers from the Globe voted largely reflected the national trends. Beltré and Mauer were unanimous choices and Helton and Wagner received four votes. But Sheffield landed only two.

Along with Beltré and Wagner, candidates Bartolo Colón, Adrián González, Víctor Martínez, Brandon Phillips, and Manny Ramirez also spent time with the Red Sox.

Ramirez has yet to surpass 33.2 percent in seven years on the ballot because of a series of positive PED tests during his career.

Colón, González, Martínez, and Phillips are on the ballot for the first and likely only time.

Any candidates elected by the BBWAA will join longtime manager Jim Leyland in the Class of 2024. The induction ceremony is set for July 21.

Jump to: Peter Abraham | Bob Ryan | Dan Shaughnessy | Michael Silverman | Alex Speier | Tara Sullivan

Advertisement

A couple of easy calls, and also some tougher ones

By Peter Abraham

Ballot

• 

  

  Beltré

• 

  

  Mauer

• 

  

  Helton

• 

  

  Wagner

• 

  

  Beltrán

• 

  

  Utley

• 

  

  Wright

Rickey Henderson, Tom Seaver, and John Smoltz were first-ballot Hall of Famers who spent one season with the Red Sox.

Adrián Beltré is sure to join that list. It was an easy decision to check his name on my ballot.

Beltré finished his career with 3,166 hits and 477 home runs. Only Hank Aaron, Miguel Cabrera, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, and Albert Pujols reached both those levels.

Beltré also won five Gold Gloves at third base and finished in the top 10 of the Most Valuable Player voting six times. He’s an obvious choice.

The same was true for Joe Mauer in his first year on the ballot. A catcher who won three batting titles and an MVP along with being a franchise cornerstone in Minnesota deserves to be in Cooperstown.

It was a much tougher call for Chase Utley, who closed his 16-year career with a series of below-average seasons at the plate.

But Utley’s value defensively and what his presence meant to the Phillies and Dodgers were meaningful. Statistics back that up, too. His peak seasons were outstanding and his career WAR is among the elite second basemen of his time.

Voters should examine all sides of a player, not just the standard statistics.

Carlos Beltrán, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner return to my ballot from previous years.

Beltrán has the credentials and was already punished for his role in the Astros scandal by being fired as manager of the Mets. Ballot tracking suggests he’ll come close this year.

I can’t see holding it against Helton for spending his career at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Was he supposed to ask for a trade?

Wagner’s numbers compare favorably with those of other Hall of Fame closers. He’s been gaining support in recent years and could get over the top this time.

I also voted for David Wright, who is likely not a Hall of Famer because of a career cut short by injuries that started when he was only 32. But there is merit in keeping him on the ballot if only to continue the discussion about how best to approach players who were clearly Cooperstown-worthy before injuries marred their résumés.

Wright was a spectacular player from 2004-13 and is first in Mets history among position players with 49.2 bWAR despite playing only 1,585 games. He should not be quickly dismissed.

The writers have been too quick with one-and-done choices (Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada, and Carlos Delgado among them) in recent years.

Gary Sheffield received strong consideration. But his candidacy is entirely dependent on his offensive statistics. For a player from the Steroids Era, that raises the bar to a high level.

Sheffield was quite a character in addition to his accomplishments on the field. If he does get in, his induction speech is sure to be memorable.

Jump to: Peter Abraham | Bob Ryan | Dan Shaughnessy | Michael Silverman | Alex Speier | Tara Sullivan

Advertisement

Don’t overlook Bobby Abreu and Andruw Jones

By Bob Ryan

Ballot

• 

  

  Beltré

• 

  

  Mauer

• 

  

  Helton

• 

  

  Jones

• 

  

  Abreu

It’s not a glamour crop of potential Hall of Famers.

But there are still some players on the ballot who were pret-ty, pret-ty good, and two of them are equal no-brainers for me.

(The order is alphabetical, not in order of merit.)

Bobby Abreu, Year 5

The man bounced around for sure (six teams, most notably the Phillies). He was what I call “sneaky good.” His best attribute was simply getting on base, doing so in an era when it wasn’t as valued as it is today. In Abreu’s time, only first-namers Derek, Alex, and Chipper reached base more often.

He had pop in the bat and he could run, finishing with more than 900 extra-base hits and with 400 stolen bases. From 1998-2006, he had eight seasons with an on-base percentage in excess of .400 and a ninth year at .393.

Adrián Beltré, Year 1

The man had 3,166 hits. The man had 477 home runs. The man could flash some gaudy leather, with five Gold Gloves at third base, the last at age 37. The man has no PED “yeah, buts” to apologize for. The man can therefore start preparing his induction speech.

I doubt that busloads of Red Sox fans will be there to welcome him, but the fact is he really began his journey to Cooperstown with a boffo 2010 season right here in Fenway (.919 OPS, league-leading 49 doubles).

He was that rarity, a player who was substantially more productive in his 30s than in his 20s. He is the latest in a long list of players who should be unanimous, but of course, he won’t be. Don’t ask me why.

Todd Helton, Year 6

Perhaps this will be the year. He finished with 72.2 percent of the needed 75 percent last year, so I’m hoping the holdouts will abandon their anti-Coors Field stance and enshrine a very deserving candidate. I mean, there is no other reason to keep him out.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, he spent his entire 17-year career playing for the Colorado Rockies, which means he got to play 81 games a year at cozy Coors Field. Well, he sure made the most of it.

Here are his 162-game average numbers: .316 BA, 27 HR, 101 RBI, 43 2B, .953 OPS, 96 BB, 85 K.

Throw in two seasons of 400 total bases. Not a bad OPS, huh? And did you note that walk/strikeout split?

Andruw Jones, Year 6

Allow me a personal moment here. During the 1996 NLCS between Atlanta and St. Louis, I found myself having a rare private moment with Braves skipper Bobby Cox, who told me that his 19-year old rookie center fielder Andruw Jones was the best (defensive) center fielder he’d ever seen. I said, “Whoa? Better than Willie Mays?” He said, “You’ll see.”

I don’t know about the Mays comp, but that was 10 Andruw Jones Gold Gloves ago. I can see voters being put off by his career BA of .254, but I believe in rewarding transcendent defensive players. (I was a staunch Bill Mazeroski advocate, and I even voted for Mark Belanger.) Oh, have I mentioned his 434 home runs?

He was up to a 58.1 vote last year, so I’m not alone. Hang in there, good people of Curacao. Your man might make it yet.

Joe Mauer, Year 1

Is he the ultimate “Local Boy Makes Good” or what? He was a national high school baseball and football player of the year (plus first-team all-state basketball) for Cretin-Derham High in St. Paul. And he played his entire big league career for the hometown Twins.

It was a front-loaded career because of injury. In his first 10 years, he became the only catcher in major league history to win three batting titles. He won five Silver Slugger awards. He won three Gold Gloves. He was a six-time All-Star. He had a rousing 1.031 OPS in his MVP season of 2009.

At his peak, there weren’t many catchers in history you’d take over Joe Mauer. I can’t wait to hear the reasons for not putting a check next to his name.

Jump to: Peter Abraham | Bob Ryan | Dan Shaughnessy | Michael Silverman | Alex Speier | Tara Sullivan

Advertisement

No need to consider the ‘character clause’ this time

By Dan Shaughnessy

Ballot

• 

  

  Beltré

• 

  

  Mauer

Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer are the Hall of Famers on this ballot.

It feels good to have two new names who have Cooperstown credentials and no taint of steroids, cheating, domestic violence, or anything else that would bring the dreaded “character clause” into the conversation.

Beltré was with the Red Sox for one season, 2010. You might remember him best as the guy who hit homers on one knee and went full Curly “Pop Goes The Weasel” if anyone touched his head in the dugout. I remember Beltré as the only third baseman who ever told me he played without wearing a protective cup.

Beltré played for the Sox on a “pillow contract” and made a comfortable landing spot for himself in Texas by hitting .321 with 28 homers and 102 RBIs in 154 games for Boston. He led the American League with 49 doubles, was an All-Star, and finished ninth in MVP voting. Rather than re-sign Beltré, the Red Sox traded for Padres first baseman Adrián “The Cooler” González and moved Kevin Youkilis from first to third.

Beltré won’t be wearing a Sox cap in Cooperstown, but he is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer. He has more hits (3,166) than the great George Brett and slammed 477 homers, which puts him third, behind only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews, in the category of homers hit by a third baseman.

It took a little longer to cast a vote for Mauer, but any catcher who wins three batting titles and an MVP clears the bar. Mauer was a hitting machine and one of the best catchers in the game before concussions made him a first baseman. He’s a little thin on power (only one season with more than 13 homers) and retired at 35, but how many catchers register season batting averages of .365, .347, and .328?

When the vote is announced Jan. 23, you can expect Beltré to top the ballot. Todd Helton is getting in and closer Billy Wagner has a good shot.

No thanks to Helton (a creation of Coors Field) and Wagner (no thanks to closers, unless they are Mariano Rivera or Goose Gossage). Same goes for Chase Utley, Andruw Jones, and Jimmy Rollins, favorites of young voters eager to vote for as many candidates as possible.

BBWAA members can vote for as many as 10 players, but these eyes have never seen 10 Hall of Famers on any ballot. The charge is to find the Hall of Famers, not the top 10 on a given ballot.

In his 10th year on the ballot, Gary Sheffield has a shot, but I’m guessing he comes up short. The PED case against Sheffield is pretty thin, but he’s in the Mitchell Report and that has cost him with older voters. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have been broomed from our ballot forever. Thus far, David Ortiz is the only steroid suspect (failed survey test in 2003) who’s been given a pass by Hall voters. In this spirit, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Andy Pettitte, and Sheffield probably will come up short again.

Next year we get to vote for Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia.

Whee.

Free at last.

Jump to: Peter Abraham | Bob Ryan | Dan Shaughnessy | Michael Silverman | Alex Speier | Tara Sullivan

A deep dig puts two more candidates over the top

By Michael Silverman

Ballot

• 

  

  Beltré

• 

  

  Mauer

• 

  

  Wagner

• 

  

  Beltrán

• 

  

  Utley

• 

  

  Ramirez

• 

  

  Rodriguez

At least for this voter, each year’s Hall of Fame ballot usually presents some sort of Private Idaho saga that needs to be resolved.

This year’s quandary turned into a needed reminder on the hazards of making assumptions.

That wasn’t the case when re-voting for Billy Wagner, Carlos Beltrán, Manny Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez. Those four votes came down to a muscle-memory exercise that took less than two seconds.

And I didn’t need to put a ton of time into checking the box of newcomer Adrián Beltré. This wasn’t because I covered his single year with the Red Sox in 2010 and knew then he was destined for Cooperstown — he was not — but I had looked over his stats enough since he retired to know he was worthy.

So how did I almost make an ass out of I and me?

Because when I first glanced at the list of non-Beltré newcomers, my flawless, razor-sharp memory goaded me into believing nobody else was worthy.

But two names kept nagging at me.

I knew Joe Mauer and Chase Utley had outstanding careers, but weren’t those careers too short for Cooperstown?

And while there will always be Koufaxian exceptions — players who didn’t play long enough to meet the traditional counting standards but whose careers burned with enough brightness and intensity to justify their election — then “surely,” whispered my inner, lazy voice, Mauer and Utley weren’t Koufaxian enough.

The insinuation set off certain detectors.

Better make sure.

Mauer’s case wasn’t as hard to prove. Him moving to first base and DH for the final five seasons of his 15-year career was not a deal-breaker. He played well over half (921) of his 1,526 games as catcher, and his first six seasons — offensively and defensively combined, or WAR — left him in the company of all-time greats at the position.

I assume (heh) he’ll make my vote for Buster Posey easier in a couple of years.

As for Utley, the research took longer, which in my book frequently leads to the realization that if I have to take long to make a case for someone, I’m overthinking it. In which case, close the book and look at the candidate again with a fresher or different eye in one year and see what’s changed. (Re: Todd Helton, nothing’s changed.)

It almost came to that for Utley, whose spotty attendance record — 120 games on average a year — over 16 seasons led to a number of counting stats that fall short.

But further research, both online and over the phone, led me to the conclusion that while Utley grazes the bar, he still clears it. A big lift comes from a Koufaxian-ish five-year period beginning in 2005 in which Utley was one of the most productive hitters in the game, and a career in which he excelled in defense and baserunning. Fangraphs’s Jay Jaffe goes into far greater detail than I will here, but his case for comparing Utley favorably to other Hall of Fame-worthy second basemen is a strong one.

I’m swayed, enough.

Jump to: Peter Abraham | Bob Ryan | Dan Shaughnessy | Michael Silverman | Alex Speier | Tara Sullivan

Advertisement

An expansive view of first-timers includes David Wright

By Alex Speier

Ballot

• 

  

  Beltré

• 

  

  Mauer

• 

  

  Wagner

• 

  

  Beltrán

• 

  

  Utley

• 

  

  Helton

• 

  

  Jones

• 

  

  Wright

• 

  

  Sheffield

• 

  

  Pettitte

Historically, election to the Hall in a player’s first year of eligibility has served as best-of-the-best-of-the-best recognition. To honor that status, some voters err on the side of skepticism.

But that approach risks dropping standout candidates below the 5 percent threshold needed to stay on the ballot and gain greater appreciation. Lou Whitaker, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, Bobby Grich, Kevin Brown … plenty of Hall-worthy players had candidacies end almost as soon as they began.

In my three years as a Hall voter, one of the joys of the responsibility is the opportunity to revisit, reconsider, and more deeply study and appreciate candidates. I find it unnecessarily — and wrongly — limiting to suggest that a view of a player should be static, particularly given that we’re permitted a finite number of votes.

Our understanding of historical events and figures evolves over time. The same can and should be true of how players’ careers are assessed. But in order to allow perspectives to reshape, the players have to stay on the ballot — in a time when the window to gain appreciation as Hall-worthy has been narrowed from 15 years (a duration that allowed Jim Rice to gain a place) to 10.

With that notion in mind, after voting again for my six holdovers (Carlos Beltrán, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner), I took an increasingly expansive view of first-year candidates.

I happily checked off Adrián Beltré, not only the possessor of incredible career milestones but also one of the most compelling players I’ve ever watched during a shorter-than-it-should-have-been Red Sox career. I also voted for Joe Mauer, who had one of the greatest two-way, 10-year stretches of all time behind the plate from 2001-10, and Chase Utley, whose accomplishments (arguably as good as anyone except Albert Pujols in the NL over a nine-year span from 2005-13) were amplified by epic postseason moments as well as reverence among teammates for building championship cultures in Philadelphia and Los Angeles.

That was nine checkmarks — one short of the maximum. I considered sending in my ballot without using all my votes. I thought about adding Mark Buehrle in recognition of the brutal under-recognition of starting pitchers in Hall voting. I gave thought to recognizing the multidimensional excellence of Torii Hunter and Jimmy Rollins over long tenures. (I did not consider Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, or Bartolo Colon, all of whom were suspended for PED use long after doing so came with clear penalties.)

But in the end, my last vote was framed with thoughts of Dustin Pedroia — a player who isn’t even on this year’s ballot.

To me, a vote is not determined simply by statistical accomplishments. How important is a player in telling the story of his franchise and of a game’s era? How many years of greatness merit recognition for their enduring fame?

I’m not sure how I’ll answer those questions when Pedroia becomes eligible next year, but I’ve been mulling it for years. And in doing so, I almost invariably thought of David Wright — the greatest position player in Mets history, probably behind only Pujols and Utley as the best player in the NL from 2005-13, but with a career whose second act was truncated by devastating back injuries.

Are nine years of greatness followed by a crashing halt enough to merit enshrinement? I’m not sure. But Wright’s contributions were memorable and enduring enough that I feel he’s at least worthy of further consideration — something that becomes possible only if he sticks around for a second year of voting. I may or may not vote for Wright again, but at the least, I wanted to cast a vote in hopes of buying more time to consider his case.

Jump to: Peter Abraham | Bob Ryan | Dan Shaughnessy | Michael Silverman | Alex Speier | Tara Sullivan

Time has come to drop Manny Ramirez from this ballot

By Tara Sullivan

Ballot

• 

  

  Beltré

• 

  

  Mauer

• 

  

  Wagner

• 

  

  Helton

• 

  

  Jones

• 

  

  Sheffield

Six is the magic number for me this season. A mix of six players getting my nod for the Hall of Fame, including two slam-dunk first-timers and four deserving holdovers, minus one former yes whom I’ve finally decided to leave off my ballot.

While the last few years have seen just a trickle of players earn enshrinement, votes should flow more freely now. The steroid era still casts its shadow, but now it’s far more defensible to keep out the players who ignored clear and definitive testing rules and focus on players who played by the rules.

So for me, it’s goodbye to Manny Ramirez, who remains the owner of one of the sweetest, truest, most beautiful baseball swings I’ve ever seen, but who spoiled it by using steroids and whom I’ve decided to keep off my ballot despite voting for him before. Same for Alex Rodriguez, for now anyway. Though he might make it at some point, I doubt it.

On to the good news! Let’s start with the newcomers, with both Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer getting my votes. Beltré is a no-brainer, his 3,166 hits and 477 homers leaving no doubt he belongs. When he retired after the 2018 season, he also had 636 doubles, 1,707 RBIs, and a career slash line of .286/.339/.480. A defensive WAR of 27 puts him 15th among all players, regardless of position. Hall of Fame numbers all.

Mauer is so much more than the hometown kid made good, though he is that. A No. 1 overall pick who spent his entire career with the Twins, Mauer was an excellent defensive catcher before concussions forced him to move to first base, and he also was a premier offensive force, the only catcher to win three batting titles. Six All-Star Games, three Gold Gloves, and one MVP: He’s in.

My other four votes return from last year’s ballot.

Gary Sheffield likely won’t make it, and in his 10th year, this is his last chance. But for me, his incredible bat control — a waggle that belied common sense and spoke to incredible hand strength — and an ability to crush the baseball, with 509 career home runs to prove it, make him among the best I watched.

Billy Wagner, in his ninth year, excelled in a position (closer) that is too easily undervalued when it comes to Hall of Fame consideration. As I’ve said before and will continue to say, if it’s a position on the field (just like designated hitter), then it’s part of the game that should be treated with equal respect.

And similarly, if you play in a city with an altitude advantage but the league decides to put a team there anyway, then you shouldn’t be punished for it. Todd Helton and his Colorado numbers — 369 home runs, 2,519 hits, five All-Stars, three Gold Gloves, and a career slash of .316/.414/.539 — deserve it.

Finally, Andruw Jones, an exceptional five-tool player who electrified the Atlanta fan base and roster from his debut at the age of 19, is in.